Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 14.406182 16.449784 18.643285 21.168414 23.990538 27.042870 30.589349
2025-08-17 11.300599 14.064375 17.254832 21.192350 25.902085 31.334603 38.053787
2025-08-24 9.683027 12.741286 16.440193 21.210196 27.161596 34.302413 43.474781
2025-08-31 8.335485 11.541281 15.586382 21.012795 28.041859 36.773276 48.364311
2025-09-07 7.433134 10.756572 15.105973 21.140400 29.208699 39.526346 53.603121
2025-09-14 6.863874 10.334753 15.027628 21.735716 30.957889 43.053442 59.951585
2025-09-21 6.123476 9.585312 14.417028 21.525641 31.562958 45.049000 64.317263
2025-09-28 5.275726 8.588693 13.362493 20.590620 31.069838 45.487148 66.542281
2025-10-05 4.977040 8.373211 13.398804 21.191370 32.736967 48.931970 73.008360
2025-10-12 4.666810 8.105918 13.327574 21.611298 34.141789 52.044495 79.111634
2025-10-19 4.255831 7.637781 12.909071 21.467488 34.686869 53.925160 83.504450
2025-10-26 3.869098 7.171039 12.451674 21.221009 35.043224 55.519407 87.513787
2025-11-02 3.565871 6.823184 12.166139 21.237360 35.820179 57.798302 92.678087
2025-11-09 3.325179 6.560903 11.998878 21.427938 36.871846 60.528625 98.625063
2025-11-16 3.067455 6.241939 11.708171 21.386916 37.535563 62.670516 103.731825
2025-11-23 2.811974 5.901916 11.353283 21.208742 37.955396 64.434338 108.303247
2025-11-30 2.629445 5.680226 11.185031 21.330048 38.860212 66.979266 114.165207
2025-12-07 2.534518 5.617768 11.293541 21.932725 40.590089 70.896681 122.325158
2025-12-14 2.331237 5.322050 10.955047 21.720038 40.916293 72.544832 126.895772
2025-12-21 2.051348 4.843063 10.239041 20.777870 39.926131 71.979993 127.837047
2025-12-28 1.988964 4.810244 10.365142 21.383313 41.669367 76.009339 136.440178
2026-01-04 1.908448 4.731046 10.394650 21.806633 43.101938 79.559866 144.355842
2026-01-11 1.770264 4.512729 10.133872 21.661662 43.497768 81.353785 149.376357